Spain’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.4% this year, according to the latest findings by Caixabank Research, half a percentage point higher than its prior forecast.
A further 2.4% growth is expected in 2025, predominantly fuelled by the robust performance within the tourism sector.
Furthermore, tourist GDP will increase by 5% this year, according to the research, twice the rate of overall economic growth, along with a growth rate of 3.2% in 2025.
This optimistic outlook is supported by the recovering purchasing power of European households amid decreasing inflation, the economic recovery in Europe, and Spain's enhanced perceived safety amidst geopolitical tensions, Sur in English reports.
“There is no doubt that part of the current dynamism of the Spanish economy can be explained by the good momentum of the tourism sector,” said the organisation’s report.
Following a record-breaking 2023, the tourism sector has continued its strong performance into the first four months of 2024, surpassing all previous figures.
Consequently, projections indicate that the tourism sector's contribution to total GDP will reach 13% this year. Additionally, one-quarter of the GDP growth expected this year is forecast to come directly from the tourism sector.
According to Caixabank Research forecasts, Spain is expected to surpass 90 million international visitors this year, which is five million more than last year's record-breaking figure.
Domestic tourism also remains strong, although it is growing at a more moderate pace compared to international tourism, the research also shows.
The trend in international tourism spending is noteworthy. While spending by European tourists remains substantial, its relative importance has declined since 2019.
In contrast, tourism spending from the Americas has shown an “amazing” evolution, according to the findings.
Additionally, according to data from Caixabank on spending with foreign cards, the contribution to growth from North American tourists (from the US and Mexico) has risen from 10.1% in 2019 to 12% in 2023. Early figures for 2024 indicate an even more significant rise in their contribution to growth.
Moreover, spending by Latin American tourists has risen from 3.8% before the pandemic to 4.3% in 2023. Meanwhile, the contribution to spending growth by European tourists has declined from 73.1% to 71.8% of the total during the same period.
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